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Back to Fundamentals

| December 31, 2018
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So, what can we say about 2018 as get ready to move forward towards a new year?  It’s been violent – and I’m not just talking about the market.  Not that you need reminding, but here are a few things I wish we would all choose to leave behind as we start the next lap around the sun: political division, media hysterics, unrelenting pessimism, and Fortnight (if you don’t have kids playing video games, count yourself blessed). 

But since I’m in the actual business of helping you navigate the chaos of financial markets, I thought we might focus on LPL Research’s Outlook for 2019.  While there is no shortage of opinions and prognostications, I think the research crew at LPL has done a good job of focusing on facts and fundamentals.  They also have done a great job presenting the information in a way that is clear and engaging.

LPL Research believes the following three themes will be key to the markets:

 

  • Sustaining growth via fiscal policy. We expect the ongoing impact of fiscal stimulus will be readily apparent in 2019 and that policy will continue to play an important role for the economy and financial markets—potentially extending the duration of the current business cycle.

 

  • Creating opportunity amid rising volatility. We believe any bouts of market volatility should be embraced—not feared—by suitable investors as an opportunity to rebalance portfolios toward targeted allocations.

 

  • Fundamentals in focus. Despite the market weakness we saw at the end of 2018, at LPL Research we expect the U.S. economy to grow in 2019 and support gains for stocks. Risks such as trade uncertainty, slowing global growth, and geopolitics do require careful monitoring, however, for their potential impact on the markets and economy.

 

“We do not anticipate a recession in 2019, thanks to the fundamentally driven economic momentum, combined with fiscal incentives and government spending programs on tap for the coming year,” said Executive Vice President and Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. “We encourage investors, where appropriate, to base any investment decisions on the fundamentals rather than acting on speculative headlines, especially as the cycle matures and the 2020 presidential election now comes into increased focus.”

 

Armed with the investment insights of LPL Research’s Outlook 2019, and supported by the guidance of a trusted financial advisor, we expect investors can remain prepared for investment opportunities ahead. Read more about our forecasts and key themes in the full publication

https://lpl-research.com/outlook/2019/Outlook_2019_Spreads.pdf

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual security. The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted. Rebalancing a portfolio may cause investors to incur tax liabilities and/or transaction costs and does not assure a profit or protect against a loss.

This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

Tracking #1-803550 (Exp. 12/20)

 

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